Tennis favourite band
PRE-REGISTERED SIGNAL — back the tennis match-odds favourite at the last pre-off snapshot when the exchange-implied probability is inside the frozen band. Found 2026-08-19 (issues #9/#12); this page is its out-of-sample test.
Total PnL
+251 DKK
6.040 DKK staked
ROI per bet
+4.2%
Bets
604
435 won
Hit rate
+72.0%
Out-of-sample
0 DKK
0 bets since pre-registration 19 Aug — the number that matters
¼-Kelly bankroll
1.700 DKK
from 1,000 DKK, sized with the frozen edge estimate
Cumulative PnL, 10 DKK flat per bet
Flat 10 DKK (cumulative PnL)¼-Kelly bank vs 1000 DKK start
Latest bets (50 of 604)
| Start | Event | Bet | Implied | Result | PnL | Total | ¼K stake | ¼K bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug, 11:20 | Pia Lovric v Vivian Wolff | Back Vivian Wolff @ 1.38 | 71% | Lost | -10 DKK | +251 DKK | 36.0 | 1.700 |
| 19 Aug, 08:00 | Staeheli v J La Serna | Back Juan Manuel La Serna @ 1.72 | 58% | Won | +6,73 DKK | +261 DKK | 31.6 | 1.736 |
| 19 Aug, 03:35 | Magadan v Ri Noguchi | Back Rio Noguchi @ 1.72 | 57% | Lost | -10 DKK | +254 DKK | 24.8 | 1.715 |
| 19 Aug, 02:20 | He Rocha v Seongc Hong | Back Henrique Rocha @ 1.32 | 75% | Won | +2,99 DKK | +264 DKK | 63.3 | 1.740 |
| 19 Aug, 00:55 | M Bouzkova v I Jović | Back Iva Jovic @ 1.55 | 64% | Lost | -10 DKK | +262 DKK | 44.9 | 1.721 |
| 19 Aug, 00:35 | Bonzi v Ju Boulais | Back Benjamin Bonzi @ 1.25 | 79% | Won | +2,34 DKK | +272 DKK | 71.9 | 1.766 |
| 19 Aug, 00:10 | L Harris v Djere | Back Lloyd Harris @ 1.57 | 63% | Won | +5,33 DKK | +269 DKK | 39.1 | 1.749 |
| 19 Aug, 00:10 | Onclin v Moro Canas | Back Gauthier Onclin @ 1.62 | 61% | Won | +5,80 DKK | +264 DKK | 36.1 | 1.728 |
| 18 Aug, 23:10 | Svrcina v Wawrinka | Back Dalibor Svrcina @ 1.53 | 65% | Lost | -10 DKK | +258 DKK | 43.0 | 1.707 |
| 18 Aug, 23:10 | Manuel Cerundolo v F Auger-Aliassime | Back Felix Auger-Aliassime @ 1.22 | 82% | Won | +2,06 DKK | +268 DKK | 86.6 | 1.750 |
| 18 Aug, 22:55 | Kavcic/Purcell v Banthia/Kadhe | Back Kavcic/Purcell @ 1.55 | 57% | Won | +5,14 DKK | +266 DKK | 0.0 | 1.732 |
| 18 Aug, 22:35 | Maestrelli v Popyrin | Back Alexei Popyrin @ 1.42 | 70% | Won | +3,93 DKK | +261 DKK | 52.8 | 1.732 |
| 18 Aug, 22:10 | Luz/Matos v Harrison/Skupski | Back Harrison/Skupski @ 1.48 | 66% | Lost | -10 DKK | +257 DKK | 35.9 | 1.712 |
| 18 Aug, 21:25 | Blanchet/Jacquet v Jung/Maginley | Back Blanchet/Jacquet @ 1.39 | 70% | Won | +3,65 DKK | +267 DKK | 23.9 | 1.748 |
| 18 Aug, 21:25 | J De Jong v Sweeny | Back Jesper De Jong @ 1.52 | 65% | Won | +4,86 DKK | +263 DKK | 40.3 | 1.739 |
| 18 Aug, 21:05 | Chan/Joint v Errani/Fernandez | Back Errani/Fernandez @ 1.71 | 58% | Lost | -10 DKK | +258 DKK | 29.9 | 1.719 |
| 18 Aug, 21:05 | Ja Faria v Walton | Back Jaime Faria @ 1.74 | 57% | Won | +6,92 DKK | +268 DKK | 33.8 | 1.749 |
| 18 Aug, 21:00 | Da Blanch v Meligeni Alves | Back Felipe Meligeni Alves @ 1.67 | 59% | Won | +6,26 DKK | +261 DKK | 35.0 | 1.726 |
| 18 Aug, 21:00 | Safiullin v Ofner | Back Roman Safiullin @ 1.68 | 59% | Won | +6,36 DKK | +255 DKK | 32.6 | 1.704 |
| 18 Aug, 21:00 | Lu Alvarez Valdes v Ri Noguchi | Back Rio Noguchi @ 1.56 | 64% | Won | +5,24 DKK | +249 DKK | 39.1 | 1.683 |
| 18 Aug, 20:35 | Bhambri/Venus v Pavlasek/Rikl | Back Pavlasek/Rikl @ 1.68 | 55% | Won | +6,36 DKK | +244 DKK | 0.0 | 1.663 |
| 18 Aug, 20:05 | Clarke v Chidekh | Back Clement Chidekh @ 1.46 | 68% | Won | +4,30 DKK | +237 DKK | 41.5 | 1.663 |
| 18 Aug, 19:55 | J Rodionov v Re Sakamoto | Back Rei Sakamoto @ 1.79 | 56% | Won | +7,39 DKK | +233 DKK | 31.0 | 1.645 |
| 18 Aug, 19:50 | Be Willwerth v Go Bueno | Back Gonzalo Bueno @ 1.37 | 72% | Won | +3,46 DKK | +226 DKK | 50.9 | 1.622 |
| 18 Aug, 19:35 | Hsieh/Ostapenko v Klepac/Lumsden | Back Hsieh/Ostapenko @ 1.20 | 80% | Won | +1,87 DKK | +222 DKK | 25.0 | 1.604 |
| 18 Aug, 19:35 | Budkov Kjaer v Yu Bu | Back Yunchaokete Bu @ 1.62 | 62% | Lost | -10 DKK | +220 DKK | 39.4 | 1.600 |
| 18 Aug, 19:05 | Melo/Zverev v Navone/Tabilo | Back Melo/Zverev @ 1.44 | 69% | Won | +4,11 DKK | +230 DKK | 46.3 | 1.639 |
| 18 Aug, 18:45 | Pellegrino v Nish Basavareddy | Back Nishesh Basavareddy @ 1.33 | 75% | Lost | -10 DKK | +226 DKK | 69.3 | 1.620 |
| 18 Aug, 18:30 | Nakashima v Medvedev | Back Daniil Medvedev @ 1.76 | 57% | Lost | -10 DKK | +236 DKK | 35.6 | 1.689 |
| 18 Aug, 18:30 | Arribage/Olivetti v Fery/Lehecka | Back Arribage/Olivetti @ 1.43 | 69% | Won | +4,02 DKK | +246 DKK | 43.7 | 1.725 |
| 18 Aug, 17:45 | Zhu v Martinez | Back Pedro Martinez @ 1.47 | 67% | Won | +4,39 DKK | +242 DKK | 43.7 | 1.707 |
| 18 Aug, 17:30 | S Sakellaridis v Schoolkate | Back Stefanos Sakellaridis @ 1.80 | 55% | Won | +7,48 DKK | +238 DKK | 33.8 | 1.688 |
| 18 Aug, 17:15 | Giustino v Cigarran | Back Lorenzo Giustino @ 1.19 | 83% | Won | +1,78 DKK | +230 DKK | 77.8 | 1.663 |
| 18 Aug, 17:15 | Lammons/Withrow v Arends/Pel | Back Lammons/Withrow @ 1.73 | 55% | Won | +6,83 DKK | +228 DKK | 9.5 | 1.649 |
| 18 Aug, 16:55 | Lajovic v Daniel | Back Dusan Lajovic @ 1.77 | 56% | Lost | -10 DKK | +222 DKK | 31.5 | 1.643 |
| 18 Aug, 16:50 | Cash/Glasspool v Ram/Salisbury | Back Cash/Glasspool @ 1.48 | 67% | Lost | -10 DKK | +232 DKK | 43.5 | 1.674 |
| 18 Aug, 16:45 | Mi Zheng v Musetti | Back Lorenzo Musetti @ 1.53 | 65% | Won | +4,96 DKK | +242 DKK | 43.6 | 1.718 |
| 18 Aug, 16:45 | Royer v Luis Miguel | Back Valentin Royer @ 1.20 | 83% | Won | +1,87 DKK | +237 DKK | 84.0 | 1.696 |
| 18 Aug, 16:40 | Ga Johns v Saraiva Dos Santos | Back Garrett Johns @ 1.44 | 69% | Won | +4,11 DKK | +235 DKK | 46.4 | 1.680 |
| 18 Aug, 16:40 | Fritz v Da Merida | Back Taylor Fritz @ 1.23 | 81% | Won | +2,15 DKK | +231 DKK | 82.2 | 1.661 |
| 18 Aug, 16:35 | Eikeri/Gleason v Jiang/Zhang | Back Jiang/Zhang @ 1.60 | 61% | Won | +5,61 DKK | +229 DKK | 24.8 | 1.643 |
| 18 Aug, 15:53 | Iva Ivanova v Alessandra Mazzola | Back Alessandra Mazzola @ 1.39 | 70% | Won | +3,65 DKK | +223 DKK | 32.7 | 1.630 |
| 18 Aug, 15:45 | Dhamne/Perego v Gray/Rybakov | Back Gray/Rybakov @ 1.36 | 71% | Won | +3,37 DKK | +219 DKK | 20.7 | 1.618 |
| 18 Aug, 15:40 | Nikles v Bernet | Back Henry Bernet @ 1.43 | 70% | Won | +4,02 DKK | +216 DKK | 51.6 | 1.611 |
| 18 Aug, 15:35 | Bianca Barbulescu v Marta Lombardini | Back Marta Lombardini @ 1.34 | 73% | Won | +3,18 DKK | +212 DKK | 34.2 | 1.590 |
| 18 Aug, 15:05 | K Siniakova v Keys | Back Madison Keys @ 1.29 | 77% | Won | +2,71 DKK | +209 DKK | 69.3 | 1.579 |
| 18 Aug, 15:00 | Jam Watt v Ug Blanchet | Back Ugo Blanchet @ 1.55 | 64% | Won | +5,14 DKK | +206 DKK | 38.3 | 1.560 |
| 18 Aug, 15:00 | S Kwon v Andrea Guerrieri | Back Soonwoo Kwon @ 1.31 | 76% | Won | +2,90 DKK | +201 DKK | 55.1 | 1.541 |
| 18 Aug, 15:00 | Nouza/Oberleitner v Behar/Romboli | Back Nouza/Oberleitner @ 1.34 | 76% | Lost | -10 DKK | +198 DKK | 80.2 | 1.525 |
| 18 Aug, 15:00 | Johnson/Zielinski v Nys/Roger-Vasselin | Back Nys/Roger-Vasselin @ 1.42 | 69% | Won | +3,93 DKK | +208 DKK | 32.6 | 1.605 |
Parameters (frozen): {"band":[0.55,0.85],"stake_dkk":10,"commission":0.065,"preregistered":"2026-08-19T13:00:00Z","kelly":{"fraction":0.25,"bankroll_start":1000,"p_lift":0.052,"source":"in-sample calibration gap 2026-08-19, frozen"}}