Racing third favourite
PRE-REGISTERED SIGNAL — back the third favourite in every race. The strongest band in the 2026-08-19 scan (in-sample +16.1%, n=282, z=1.8) and also the most scan-shaped one; treat the in-sample number as bait and judge only out-of-sample.
Total PnL
+322 DKK
2.600 DKK staked
ROI per bet
+12.4%
Bets
260
45 won
Hit rate
+17.3%
Out-of-sample
0 DKK
0 bets since pre-registration 19 Aug — the number that matters
¼-Kelly bankroll
1.211 DKK
from 1,000 DKK, sized with the frozen edge estimate
Cumulative PnL, 10 DKK flat per bet
Flat 10 DKK (cumulative PnL)¼-Kelly bank vs 1000 DKK start
Latest bets (50 of 260)
| Start | Event | Bet | Implied | Result | PnL | Total | ¼K stake | ¼K bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug, 19:15 | Roscommon 18th Aug | Back Yquem @ 9.40 | 11% | Lost | -10 DKK | +322 DKK | 10.2 | 1.211 |
| 18 Aug, 19:00 | Wolverhampton 18th Aug | Back Kakirra @ 6.40 | 15% | Lost | -10 DKK | +332 DKK | 9.4 | 1.221 |
| 18 Aug, 18:30 | Wolverhampton 18th Aug | Back Percys Star @ 10.50 | 9.3% | Lost | -10 DKK | +342 DKK | 9.8 | 1.231 |
| 18 Aug, 18:15 | Roscommon 18th Aug | Back Summer Island @ 8.80 | 11% | Lost | -10 DKK | +352 DKK | 9.6 | 1.240 |
| 18 Aug, 18:00 | Wolverhampton 18th Aug | Back Gladiadora @ 5.80 | 17% | Lost | -10 DKK | +362 DKK | 9.8 | 1.250 |
| 18 Aug, 17:30 | Wolverhampton 18th Aug | Back Inside Story @ 5.40 | 18% | Lost | -10 DKK | +372 DKK | 9.8 | 1.260 |
| 18 Aug, 17:22 | Lingfield 18th Aug | Back Chasing Gold @ 5.40 | 18% | Lost | -10 DKK | +382 DKK | 10.1 | 1.269 |
| 18 Aug, 17:15 | Roscommon 18th Aug | Back Oristown Boy @ 6.40 | 15% | Lost | -10 DKK | +392 DKK | 9.6 | 1.280 |
| 18 Aug, 17:00 | Wolverhampton 18th Aug | Back Peaberry @ 5.70 | 17% | Lost | -10 DKK | +402 DKK | 10.1 | 1.289 |
| 18 Aug, 16:52 | Lingfield 18th Aug | Back Balon Dor @ 5.60 | 18% | Won | +43 DKK | +412 DKK | 10.1 | 1.299 |
| 18 Aug, 16:45 | Roscommon 18th Aug | Back Nando Royale @ 8.60 | 11% | Lost | -10 DKK | +369 DKK | 9.9 | 1.256 |
| 18 Aug, 16:30 | Wolverhampton 18th Aug | Back Why Not Me @ 10.50 | 9.1% | Lost | -10 DKK | +379 DKK | 9.4 | 1.266 |
| 18 Aug, 16:20 | Lingfield 18th Aug | Back Chloes Courage @ 10.50 | 9.3% | Lost | -10 DKK | +389 DKK | 10.3 | 1.275 |
| 18 Aug, 16:10 | Roscommon 18th Aug | Back Hexagonal @ 7.40 | 13% | Won | +60 DKK | +399 DKK | 9.1 | 1.286 |
| 18 Aug, 16:00 | Chepstow 18th Aug | Back Connies Rose @ 6.80 | 14% | Lost | -10 DKK | +339 DKK | 9.5 | 1.231 |
| 18 Aug, 15:45 | Lingfield 18th Aug | Back Zaltalla @ 5.90 | 17% | Lost | -10 DKK | +349 DKK | 9.7 | 1.241 |
| 18 Aug, 15:25 | Chepstow 18th Aug | Back Espona Bay @ 5.50 | 18% | Lost | -10 DKK | +359 DKK | 10.0 | 1.250 |
| 18 Aug, 15:08 | Lingfield 18th Aug | Back Henfield @ 6.40 | 15% | Lost | -10 DKK | +369 DKK | 8.7 | 1.260 |
| 18 Aug, 14:50 | Chepstow 18th Aug | Back Rating @ 5.50 | 18% | Won | +42 DKK | +379 DKK | 8.8 | 1.269 |
| 18 Aug, 14:33 | Lingfield 18th Aug | Back Douglas Dc @ 6.60 | 15% | Lost | -10 DKK | +337 DKK | 8.6 | 1.232 |
| 18 Aug, 14:15 | Chepstow 18th Aug | Back Avionics @ 9.80 | 9.8% | Won | +82 DKK | +347 DKK | 8.8 | 1.240 |
| 18 Aug, 14:00 | Lingfield 18th Aug | Back Enriched @ 10.00 | 9.8% | Lost | -10 DKK | +265 DKK | 9.4 | 1.168 |
| 18 Aug, 13:45 | Chepstow 18th Aug | Back Sioux Moon @ 3.75 | 26% | Lost | -10 DKK | +275 DKK | 8.8 | 1.177 |
| 18 Aug, 13:30 | Lingfield 18th Aug | Back Roland Garros @ 11.50 | 8.3% | Lost | -10 DKK | +285 DKK | 9.1 | 1.186 |
| 17 Aug, 19:10 | Wolverhampton 17th Aug | Back Pace Attack @ 12.00 | 8.1% | Lost | -10 DKK | +295 DKK | 9.8 | 1.195 |
| 17 Aug, 18:55 | Windsor 17th Aug | Back Guinness Lad @ 6.00 | 16% | Lost | -10 DKK | +305 DKK | 9.1 | 1.205 |
| 17 Aug, 18:40 | Wolverhampton 17th Aug | Back Lets Go Hugo @ 6.00 | 16% | Won | +47 DKK | +315 DKK | 8.7 | 1.214 |
| 17 Aug, 18:25 | Windsor 17th Aug | Back Yes Waliim @ 6.20 | 16% | Lost | -10 DKK | +268 DKK | 9.1 | 1.173 |
| 17 Aug, 18:10 | Wolverhampton 17th Aug | Back Hectic @ 6.00 | 16% | Lost | -10 DKK | +278 DKK | 8.7 | 1.182 |
| 17 Aug, 17:55 | Windsor 17th Aug | Back Tenbob Tommy @ 9.00 | 11% | Lost | -10 DKK | +288 DKK | 9.9 | 1.191 |
| 17 Aug, 17:40 | Wolverhampton 17th Aug | Back Invincible Isaac @ 5.60 | 18% | Lost | -10 DKK | +298 DKK | 9.6 | 1.201 |
| 17 Aug, 17:25 | Windsor 17th Aug | Back Paper View @ 4.30 | 23% | Lost | -10 DKK | +308 DKK | 8.9 | 1.210 |
| 17 Aug, 17:10 | Wolverhampton 17th Aug | Back Wondervision @ 6.00 | 16% | Won | +47 DKK | +318 DKK | 8.7 | 1.219 |
| 17 Aug, 16:40 | Wolverhampton 17th Aug | Back Forest Berry @ 4.50 | 22% | Won | +33 DKK | +271 DKK | 8.7 | 1.179 |
| 17 Aug, 16:20 | Windsor 17th Aug | Back Kiss And Run @ 6.00 | 16% | Lost | -10 DKK | +239 DKK | 8.5 | 1.150 |
| 17 Aug, 16:10 | Wolverhampton 17th Aug | Back Amelias Joy @ 7.00 | 14% | Lost | -10 DKK | +249 DKK | 8.8 | 1.159 |
| 17 Aug, 16:00 | Lingfield 17th Aug | Back Uzincso @ 6.40 | 15% | Lost | -10 DKK | +259 DKK | 9.1 | 1.168 |
| 17 Aug, 15:45 | Catterick 17th Aug | Back Runninsonofagun @ 4.60 | 21% | Lost | -10 DKK | +269 DKK | 8.6 | 1.177 |
| 17 Aug, 15:30 | Lingfield 17th Aug | Back Star Marian @ 12.00 | 8.0% | Lost | -10 DKK | +279 DKK | 9.3 | 1.185 |
| 17 Aug, 15:15 | Catterick 17th Aug | Back Canaria Queen @ 8.00 | 12% | Lost | -10 DKK | +289 DKK | 9.6 | 1.195 |
| 17 Aug, 15:00 | Lingfield 17th Aug | Back Dark Brunette @ 13.00 | 7.5% | Lost | -10 DKK | +299 DKK | 10.0 | 1.204 |
| 17 Aug, 14:45 | Catterick 17th Aug | Back Preferred @ 8.20 | 12% | Lost | -10 DKK | +309 DKK | 9.6 | 1.214 |
| 17 Aug, 14:30 | Lingfield 17th Aug | Back Fornido @ 32.00 | 2.9% | Lost | -10 DKK | +319 DKK | 10.6 | 1.224 |
| 17 Aug, 14:15 | Catterick 17th Aug | Back Barmyblade @ 7.40 | 13% | Lost | -10 DKK | +329 DKK | 9.8 | 1.235 |
| 17 Aug, 14:00 | Lingfield 17th Aug | Back Itica @ 4.30 | 23% | Lost | -10 DKK | +339 DKK | 9.5 | 1.244 |
| 17 Aug, 13:45 | Catterick 17th Aug | Back So Tempting @ 7.60 | 13% | Lost | -10 DKK | +349 DKK | 9.9 | 1.254 |
| 17 Aug, 13:30 | Lingfield 17th Aug | Back Magical Life @ 7.00 | 14% | Lost | -10 DKK | +359 DKK | 9.6 | 1.264 |
| 17 Aug, 13:15 | Catterick 17th Aug | Back Super Hit @ 5.50 | 18% | Lost | -10 DKK | +369 DKK | 10.1 | 1.273 |
| 16 Aug, 17:45 | Pontefract 16th Aug | Back Havana Rum @ 7.00 | 14% | Lost | -10 DKK | +379 DKK | 10.1 | 1.283 |
| 16 Aug, 17:15 | Pontefract 16th Aug | Back Letsbefrank @ 6.40 | 15% | Won | +50 DKK | +389 DKK | 8.8 | 1.293 |
Parameters (frozen): {"rank":3,"stake_dkk":10,"commission":0.065,"preregistered":"2026-08-19T16:00:00Z","kelly":{"fraction":0.25,"bankroll_start":1000,"p_lift":0.037,"source":"in-sample band scan 2026-08-19, frozen"}}